Initial Jobless Claims is a weekly report that tracks how many people have filed for unemployment benefits. It is both a solid gauge on the state of the labor market and economy and a leading indicator on what to expect in the months ahead.
So, what are Initial Jobless Claims telling us today? Last week's 196,000 recorded was the lowest in over 50 years! This is what it's telling us:
- The labor market continues to strengthen.
- The chance of a recession in 2019 is near zero.
Low Initial Jobless Claims also leads to continued higher wage gains, which is wonderful for consumer spending and housing.
Another great data point this past week was the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) which showed the US economy still has a 1,000,000-person shortfall against the current 7,000,000 job openings. This is just another example of how tight the labor market remains.
Bottom line -- the great story remains -- low-interest rates + great job market = nice housing market.
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