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IN THIS ISSUE…

Despite what the Mayan calendar may say, the world probably won’t come to an end in 2012. But like 2011, this coming year may bring some significant challenges here in the US…and around the world. Here are just a few important topics to keep an eye on in the new year:

• Working for a Living – The labor market made modest improvements in 2011…but what should you expect in 2012? Here’s the answer!
• Home Sweet Home – The housing market is still uncertain, but here’s something to celebrate!
• What to Watch – Inflation is extremely influential. Read the article below to discover what to watch in 2012.
• Q&A: The Bottom Line? – What’s the bottom line for 2012? The answer may surprise you!

Best wishes to you and yours in the coming year. If you have any questions or would like to discuss your unique situation, call or email today. And please forward this newsletter to friends, family members and coworkers who may find the information helpful.

Working for a Living: The Labor Market in 2012

The mantra “I’m taking what they giving ’cause I’m working for a living” was made famous in the 1980s by the band “Huey Lewis and the News.” Today, the feeling is the same around much of the country as many Americans were able to find work in 2011. But we’re not out of the woods yet, as many more workers are still searching for employment.

The labor market made modest improvements in 2011, and that trend is likely to continue in 2012. As you can see in the bar graph next to this article, the number of new people claiming unemployment each week saw a drastic improvement by the year’s end compared to the high reported the last week of April 2011. Recently, the number of new claims has stayed below the important line of 400,000 new claims each week. That’s a welcome site compared to most of 2011.

That said, it’s a good bet that the official Unemployment Rate will remain north of 8% throughout 2012, as more gains in the private sector are offset by government jobs being removed with our belt tightening measures. Another factor to consider is that Baby Boomers who are headed into retirement will be removed from the labor force, and this continuing shift in our country’s demographics will help add to the decline in the unemployment rate.

Rather than looking at the official Unemployment Rate, which always brings up controversy due to its methodology, we should start looking at the labor force’s “participation rate,” as this may be a more accurate reflection of labor market conditions. This rate is a little more straightforward, since it simply measures the number of people eligible to work against the number of people actually working.

And get this: the current labor force participation rate is 64%, which represents the lowest level of eligible workers participating in roughly thirty years. One of the contributing factors to the decline in the rate is the aforementioned effect of the Baby Boomer generation retiring and leaving the labor force. However, that only makes up a portion of the decline in the rate as obviously, there are still lots of folks looking to “participate” in the workforce, but they haven’t been able to find a job. With businesses still somewhat reticent to hire until they feel more confidence, estimates are for little to no improvement in the participation rate in 2012.

This is obviously a very important topic not only for people looking for work but also for the economy as a whole. I will continue to monitor the labor market and its impact on housing and home loan rates over the coming weeks and months.

Home Sweet Home

On the one hand, the housing market still remains uncertain. For instance:

• Foreclosures will still be a concern in 2012 as a fresh wave will be hitting the market…and that will prevent a broad-based pricing recovery in housing. However, the good news is that the delinquency rates have declined and should continue to do so.
• While some parts of the country are seeing signs of improvement in housing, others continue to struggle. Overall, home prices will likely decline modestly in the first half of 2012 and then recover in the second half of the year.
• Rentals and investment properties will continue to be popular in 2012 as more people continue to rent.

On the other hand, we are closer to the bottom in housing and with historically low rates in 2012, it will be another incredible purchase opportunity for homebuyers.

In fact, it looks like home loan rates could move a leg lower in the first part of 2012, as rumors continue to swirl around the possibility of the Fed stepping in with a third round of Quantitative Easing (or QE3), and this could lead to the lowest rates ever. HOWEVER…like all windows of opportunity, this one may be short as well. History has shown that Bonds move higher in anticipation of Quantitative Easing, but then selloff once the official announcement is made. Think about the old investing adage: “Buy on the rumor, and sell on the news.” So the best home loan rates may be seen leading up to any actual announcement.

If the Fed doesn’t do QE3, rates will still be very attractive in the first part of year, before moving a bit higher in the second half of 2012 as the economy continues to pick up. Overall, the early part of 2012 looks to be a great environment for interest rate, which means lots of opportunity for homebuyers.

Regardless of what happens at the Federal level, I’ll be here ready to help you get the best home loan for your unique goals and situation. And if you have any friends or family members who could use some insight and help navigating a home loan, please forward them this newsletter along with my contact information. I’m always happy to help out in any way I can.

What to Watch: A Breeze of Inflation

Inflation, as measured by the Core Consumer Price Index, ran at 2.2% from November 2010 through November 2011. That was up rather sharply from the previous year and was closing in on the comfort range threshold of the Fed. What is interesting and a little disturbing to note is the increasing consumer inflation in the face of stagnant wage growth. Typically, consumer inflation increases are fueled by wage-based inflation, where wages move higher…but we are not seeing that just yet.

With US consumers still behaving conservatively, the political climate promoting uncertainty and the labor market only making modest improvement, inflation may still tick higher to possibly 2.5%. But that would still be considered within the tolerance limits of the Fed.

Of course, even if the inflation number is within the Fed’s comfort, any increase can negatively impact home loan rates. Remember: inflation is the archenemy of Bonds and home loan rates, so inflation ticking higher would not be good for rates. But inflation (and its impact on rates) doesn’t exist in a bubble or an isolated test tube. Home loan rates are also impacted by other economic factors. Part of the magic in watching rates and how they behave is understanding all the competing factors at play. So the coming year will be an example of why it’s so important to work with a knowledgeable mortgage professional like me, who understands the complexity of the markets and can help identify opportunities for homebuyers.

As always, I’ll be watching the inflation news closely in the coming months…and I’ll continue to share any important news that may impact you or the economy as a whole. And if you ever have any questions, please just call or email.

Q&A: The bottom line?

QUESTION:What’s the bottom line for 2012?

ANSWER: The bottom line is that opportunity lies around every corner. For people looking to purchase a home, the abundance of affordable housing and historically low home loan rates will create a number of opportunities. And for those seeking to refinance, this may prove to be another year where you can move into a better mortgage.

If you have any questions at all as we enter the new year, please call or email. It only takes a few moments to look at what’s going on and to discuss what it means to your unique housing and financial goals.

Best wishes and happy New Year!

IN THIS ISSUE…

“Should old acquaintance be forgot, and never brought to mind?” - As we head into the final month of 2011, one thing that we can’t forget   and that keeps coming to mind is the strength of the economy. The articles below shed some light on the economy as a whole to offer a global perspective on where we’re at…and what to look for in the near future:

• A Productive Year? – Where is the US economy as we finish 2011? The article below puts the answer into perspective.
• Let’s Make a Deal – Discover last-minute deals that make the season bright!
• Q&A: Lessons from Europe? – Find out what we can learn from Europe…and how it impacts home loan rates.

Best wishes to you and yours this holiday season. If you have any questions or would like to discuss your unique situation, call or email today. And please forward this newsletter to friends, family members and coworkers who may find the information helpful.

A Productive Year for the Economy?

One of the best ways to look at a snapshot of the overall US economy is to look at Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures the total production and consumption of goods and services in the US to shed light on the economy’s behavior. Recently, we saw the second of three looks at the US’s Third Quarter GDP.

The bad news was that the second reading was actually lowered to 2%, compared to the first reading of 2.5%. While that may not sound like much of a difference, it’s a sizeable drop in GDP. And when we factor that drop into the year-over-year reading, GDP is an anemic 1.5%.

The good news is that we’re not in a recession and the Third Quarter reading is still up from the First Quarter. But this very weak growth reading is not nearly enough to put a dent in the Unemployment Rate. Additionally, any external shock to the economy – for example, a deepening Euro crisis – could apply enough pressure to hit the US economy rather hard. This is very much like a person whose immune system is weak, which makes them extra susceptible to catching an illness that they might normally be able to fight off.

That said, the US economy is still much healthier than a lot of European countries, which are more like the walking dead…meandering slowly and living on borrowed time as ever growing debt literally buries them. Right now, Germany holds all the cards – and they want to wait and see if the troubled Euro member countries can truly invoke austerity and grow their way out of deficit.

The problem is that the market may not be that patient. Yields in Italy, Spain and Portugal have risen sharply in recent weeks, and the only thing keeping them from going higher still is that the European Central Bank has been buying Bonds from those countries. So the clock is ticking in Europe. In the very near future either the European Central Bank will have to print a ton of money to continue buying those Bonds…or some of these southern European countries may leave the Euro. As this story plays out, the US Dollar and US Bonds – and home loan rates overall – continue to benefit from a safe haven trade.

Let’s Make a Deal: How to Save on Last-Minute Holiday Shopping

Black Friday has come and gone. But, if you’re like most people, you probably still have a little holiday shopping left to do. Whether you’re looking for small items like toys and clothing, big-ticket items like electronics or maybe a car, or even a plane ticket home to see the family, the following tips can help you save on your last-minute holiday purchases.

Toys, Electronics, Jewelry, and Even Groceries: Believe it or not, you can get the best deals on a wide variety of gift ideas without ever leaving your house. So whether you’re looking for toddler toys, a big screen TV, a diamond necklace or even the groceries you need for that holiday feast, you should start by shopping online. For example, websites like PriceGrabber.com allow you to compare prices at popular stores. You can also save by printing coupons on the items you want by visiting websites such as Coupons.com and CouponMom.com. Finally, consider visiting sites like RetailMeNot.com that allow people to share coupons for thousands of popular stores and items.

Clothing: If you still need to buy a gift for a teenager, then the clothing store may be a good place to start. This time of year, you’ll find tons of holiday specials that make last-minute shopping easy. But you’ll want to plan out and time your trip to the mall. That’s because when the weekend rolls around, just about every dressing room is filled…and the best deals have been picked over already. Why? It’s simple. With the large number of special promotions to be marked and shelves to be stocked, most clothing stores get started early. And savvy shoppers, like you, can get the best deals and the best selection by Thursday evenings. As an added bonus, the stores, dressing rooms, and checkout lines aren’t nearly as crowded – so you save on stress, too!

Cars: Perhaps you’re in the market for a big-ticket item this holiday season. Lots of automakers and dealers offer special financing or holiday specials to help increase sales near the end of the year. When it comes to buying a car, you may already know that your best chance to negotiate a better price is at the end of a month when car dealers need to make their monthly quotas. But did you know you can drive home a great deal early in the week, especially during the morning? At that time, the dealerships aren’t overflowing with shoppers like they are on the weekend, so you’ll get more personalized attention. Plus, salespeople are more likely to negotiate when they don’t have three or four other buyers waiting in the wings to pay full price.

Airplane Tickets: Still looking for a plane ticket to see friends and family members during the holiday season? In addition to looking for cheap airfare on sites like Priceline.com, Orbitz.com, and HotWire.com, remember to shop at the right times. For example, your best chance for saving is Wednesday morning. That’s because airlines introduce their savings over the weekend and during the first few days of the week, subtle price wars begin. By early Wednesday, the savings have usually hit their peak…and there are still plenty of seats left for you to capitalize on. And remember, the more flexible you can be on your travel dates, the better chance you have of grabbing a good deal.

The moral of the story is that with a little planning, you can still save big on large and small items on your holiday shopping list.

Q&A: Lessons from Europe?

QUESTION:What can we learn from Europe’s financial crisis?

ANSWER: The takeaway from Europe is just how quickly things can – and probably will – change. Unless the US government does something meaningful to address our own debt problems, we will see a price adjustment in the Bond market sometime in the future. Lately, US Bonds have been benefiting from the problems in Europe…and since home loan rates are tied to Bonds, home loan rates have also benefited. But this won’t last forever. Somewhere down the road, something’s gotta give, which means the near historically low home loan rates may be living on borrowed time.

If you have any questions about how the US economy or crisis in Europe impacts the home loan rate you can get, please call or email today. It will only take a few moments to discuss what’s going on based on your unique goals and financial situation.

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